Model-based control of observer bias for the analysis of presence-only data in ecology

Presence-only data, where information is available concerning species presence but not species absence, are subject to bias due to observers being more likely to visit and record sightings at some locations than others (hereafter "observer bias"). In this paper, we describe and evaluate a model-based approach to accounting for observer bias directly - by modelling presence locations as a function of known observer bias variables (such as accessibility variables) in addition to environmental variables, then conditioning on a common level of bias to make predictions of species occurrence free of such observer bias. We implement this idea using point process models with a LASSO penalty, a new presence-only method related to maximum entropy modelling, that implicitly addresses the "pseudo-absence problem" of where to locate pseudo-absences (and how many). The proposed method of bias-correction is evaluated using systematically collected presence/absence data for 62 plant species endemic to the Blue Mountains near Sydney, Australia. It is shown that modelling and controlling for observer bias significantly improves the accuracy of predictions made using presence-only data, and usually improves predictions as compared to pseudo-absence or "inventory" methods of bias correction based on absences from non-target species. Future research will consider the potential for improving the proposed bias-correction approach by estimating the observer bias simultaneously across multiple species. © 2013 Warton et al

Leaf economics fundamentals explained by optimality principles

The life span of leaves increases with their mass per unit area (LMA). It is unclear why. Here, we show that this empirical generalization (the foundation of the worldwide leaf economics spectrum) is a consequence of natural selection, maximizing average net carbon gain over the leaf life cycle. Analyzing two large leaf trait datasets, we show that evergreen and deciduous species with diverse construction costs (assumed proportional to LMA) are selected by light, temperature, and growing-season length in different, but predictable, ways. We quantitatively explain the observed divergent latitudinal trends in evergreen and deciduous LMA and show how local distributions of LMA arise by selection under different environmental conditions acting on the species pool. These results illustrate how optimality principles can underpin a new theory for plant geography and terrestrial carbon dynamics

Global patterns of the leaf economics spectrum in wetlands

Contains fulltext : 226771.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

Collision Mortality Has No Discernible Effect on Population Trends of North American Birds

Avian biodiversity is threatened by numerous anthropogenic factors and migratory species are especially at risk. Migrating birds frequently collide with manmade structures and such losses are believed to represent the majority of anthropogenic mortality for North American birds. However, estimates of total collision mortality range across several orders of magnitude and effects on population dynamics remain unknown. Herein, we develop a novel method to assess relative vulnerability to anthropogenic threats, which we demonstrate using 243,103 collision records from 188 species of eastern North American landbirds. After correcting mortality estimates for variation attributable to population size and geographic overlap with potential collision structures, we found that per capita vulnerability to collision with buildings and towers varied over more than four orders of magnitude among species. Species that migrate long distances or at night were much more likely to be killed by collisions than year-round residents or diurnal migrants. However, there was no correlation between relative collision mortality and long-term population trends for these same species. Thus, although millions of North American birds are killed annually by collisions with manmade structures, this source of mortality has no discernible effect on populations

Three-Dimensional Geometric Analysis of Felid Limb Bone Allometry

Studies of bone allometry typically use simple measurements taken in a small number of locations per bone; often the midshaft diameter or joint surface area is compared to body mass or bone length. However, bones must fulfil multiple roles simultaneously with minimum cost to the animal while meeting the structural requirements imposed by behaviour and locomotion, and not exceeding its capacity for adaptation and repair. We use entire bone volumes from the forelimbs and hindlimbs of Felidae (cats) to investigate regional complexities in bone allometry.Computed tomographic (CT) images (16435 slices in 116 stacks) were made of 9 limb bones from each of 13 individuals of 9 feline species ranging in size from domestic cat (Felis catus) to tiger (Panthera tigris). Eleven geometric parameters were calculated for every CT slice and scaling exponents calculated at 5% increments along the entire length of each bone. Three-dimensional moments of inertia were calculated for each bone volume, and spherical radii were measured in the glenoid cavity, humeral head and femoral head. Allometry of the midshaft, moments of inertia and joint radii were determined. Allometry was highly variable and related to local bone function, with joint surfaces and muscle attachment sites generally showing stronger positive allometry than the midshaft.Examining whole bones revealed that bone allometry is strongly affected by regional variations in bone function, presumably through mechanical effects on bone modelling. Bone's phenotypic plasticity may be an advantage during rapid evolutionary divergence by allowing exploitation of the full size range that a morphotype can occupy. Felids show bone allometry rather than postural change across their size range, unlike similar-sized animals

Anyone with a Long-Face? Craniofacial Evolutionary Allometry (CREA) in a Family of Short-Faced Mammals, the Felidae

Among adults of closely related species, a trend in craniofacial evolutionary allometry (CREA) for larger taxa to be long-faced and smaller ones to have paedomorphic aspects, such as proportionally smaller snouts and larger braincases, has been demonstrated in some mammals and two bird lineages. Nevertheless, whether this may represent a ‘rule’ with few exceptions is still an open question. In this context, Felidae is a particularly interesting family to study because, although its members are short-faced, previous research did suggest relative facial elongation in larger living representatives. Using geometric morphometrics, based on two sets of anatomical landmarks, and traditional morphometrics, for comparing relative lengths of the palate and basicranium, we performed a series of standard and comparative allometric regressions in the Felidae and its two subfamilies. All analyses consistently supported the CREA pattern, with only one minor exception in the geometric morphometric analysis of Pantherinae: the genus Neofelis. With its unusually long canines, Neofelis species seem to have a relatively narrow cranium and long face, despite being smaller than other big cats. In spite of this, overall, our findings strengthen the possibility that the CREA pattern might indeed be a ‘rule’ among mammals, raising questions on the processes behind it and suggesting future directions for its study

Bridging reproductive and microbial ecology: a case study in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

Offspring size is a key trait for understanding the reproductive ecology of species, yet studies addressing the ecological meaning of offspring size have so far been limited to macro-organisms. We consider this a missed opportunity in microbial ecology and provide what we believe is the first formal study of offspring-size variation in microbes using reproductive models developed for macro-organisms. We mapped the entire distribution of fungal spore size in the arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi (subphylum Glomeromycotina) and tested allometric expectations of this trait to offspring (spore) output and body size. Our results reveal a potential paradox in the reproductive ecology of AM fungi: while large spore-size variation is maintained through evolutionary time (independent of body size), increases in spore size trade off with spore output. That is, parental mycelia of large-spored species produce fewer spores and thus may have a fitness disadvantage compared to small-spored species. The persistence of the large-spore strategy, despite this apparent fitness disadvantage, suggests the existence of advantages to large-spored species that could manifest later in fungal life history. Thus, we consider that solving this paradox opens the door to fruitful future research establishing the relationship between offspring size and other AM life history traits

The Allometry of Host-Pathogen Interactions

Understanding the mechanisms that control rates of disease progression in humans and other species is an important area of research relevant to epidemiology and to translating studies in small laboratory animals to humans. Body size and metabolic rate influence a great number of biological rates and times. We hypothesize that body size and metabolic rate affect rates of pathogenesis, specifically the times between infection and first symptoms or death.We conducted a literature search to find estimates of the time from infection to first symptoms (t(S)) and to death (t(D)) for five pathogens infecting a variety of bird and mammal hosts. A broad sampling of diseases (1 bacterial, 1 prion, 3 viruses) indicates that pathogenesis is controlled by the scaling of host metabolism. We find that the time for symptoms to appear is a constant fraction of time to death in all but one disease. Our findings also predict that many population-level attributes of disease dynamics are likely to be expressed as dimensionless quantities that are independent of host body size.Our results show that much variability in host pathogenesis can be described by simple power functions consistent with the scaling of host metabolic rate. Assessing how disease progression is controlled by geometric relationships will be important for future research. To our knowledge this is the first study to report the allometric scaling of host/pathogen interactions

When Your Decisions Are Not (Quite) Your Own: Action Observation Influences Free Choices

A growing number of studies have begun to assess how the actions of one individual are represented in an observer. Using a variant of an action observation paradigm, four experiments examined whether one person's behaviour can influence the subjective decisions and judgements of another. In Experiment 1, two observers sat adjacent to each other and took turns to freely select and reach to one of two locations. Results showed that participants were less likely to make a response to the same location as their partner. In three further experiments observers were asked to decide which of two familiar products they preferred or which of two faces were most attractive. Results showed that participants were less likely to choose the product or face occupying the location of their partner's previous reaching response. These findings suggest that action observation can influence a range of free choice preferences and decisions. Possible mechanisms through which this influence occurs are discussed

Morphological Evolution of Spiders Predicted by Pendulum Mechanics

[Background] Animals have been hypothesized to benefit from pendulum mechanics during suspensory locomotion, in which the potential energy of gravity is converted into kinetic energy according to the energy-conservation principle. However, no convincing evidence has been found so far. Demonstrating that morphological evolution follows pendulum mechanics is important from a biomechanical point of view because during suspensory locomotion some morphological traits could be decoupled from gravity, thus allowing independent adaptive morphological evolution of these two traits when compared to animals that move standing on their legs; i.e., as inverted pendulums. If the evolution of body shape matches simple pendulum mechanics, animals that move suspending their bodies should evolve relatively longer legs which must confer high moving capabilities.[Methodology/Principal Findings] We tested this hypothesis in spiders, a group of diverse terrestrial generalist predators in which suspensory locomotion has been lost and gained a few times independently during their evolutionary history. In spiders that hang upside-down from their webs, their legs have evolved disproportionately longer relative to their body sizes when compared to spiders that move standing on their legs. In addition, we show how disproportionately longer legs allow spiders to run faster during suspensory locomotion and how these same spiders run at a slower speed on the ground (i.e., as inverted pendulums). Finally, when suspensory spiders are induced to run on the ground, there is a clear trend in which larger suspensory spiders tend to run much more slowly than similar-size spiders that normally move as inverted pendulums (i.e., wandering spiders).[Conclusions/Significance] Several lines of evidence support the hypothesis that spiders have evolved according to the predictions of pendulum mechanics. These findings have potentially important ecological and evolutionary implications since they could partially explain the occurrence of foraging plasticity and dispersal constraints as well as the evolution of sexual size dimorphism and sociality.This paper has been written under a Ramón y Cajal research contract from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Culture (MEC) to JML and a FPI scholarship (BES-2005-9234) to GC. This work has been funded by MEC grants CGL2004-03153 and CGL2007-60520 to JML and GC, as well as CGL2005-01771 to EMPeer reviewe